2024 Recession Probability Theory. And global recession in 2024 has hit 35%, up from their 25% midyear estimate. Us recession probability is at 61.79%, compared to 56.29% last month and 60.83% last year.

We estimated that the probability of a recession in 2024 was roughly 30%, with a range of 15% to 60%, while we estimated that the market was. Us recession probability is at 61.79%, compared to 56.29% last month and 60.83% last year.